Job Opportunities for the Next 30 Years by Philip D. Gardner, Ph.D.

As the economy cools down after a decade of unprecedented growth, employers have quickly adjusted by shedding labor and restructuring their operations.  These adjustments are coming much more swiftly than in previous downturns.  What are the implications for the future in terms of labor stability?  Can new entrants into the labor market expect limited opportunities, as well as continual labor disruption each time the economy hiccups?  The future in a few words is bright for today’s young people.  The reasons are all in the numbers – demographics, speed of the business cycle, and expenditures for research and development.  By examining the numbers, the type of opportunities that will be available can be identified.  More important, however, the skills and competencies that will be demanded of workers over the next three decades become clear.

During the 1990s, the labor market was propelled by expansion across nearly every sector of the economy with the possible exception manufacturing.  The creation of new jobs will take a backseat to job succession over the next 30 years, as the largest population cohort (referred to as the baby boomers) enters retirement.  The leading edge of boomer cohort is poised to retire, with the biggest initial impact in education and government.  The rate at which retirement occurs will depend on the recovery of the stock market and the value of personal retirement accounts.  By 2031, the older age group in the U.S. will out-number the young.  While many boomers will stay attached to the workforce in interesting and unique ways (doing what they always wanted to do), it will take two working adults to support each person on social security.  Consider that 50 years ago there were 16 workers for each person on social security.  For the next 15 years a steady demand for new workers will exist across all occupation categories.  Because of the large segment of elders, entire new service industries will be developed to respond to their needs.

Speed is a defining characteristic of the new economy.  And a college graduate in the next decade should only expect the pace to quicken.  In his farewell address to investors and workers at General Electric, CEO Jack Welch reminded that “giving customers what they want when they want it”  (USA Today, February 27, 2001, p.2B) was critical to the company’s success.  Delivering the service quickly has restructured nearly every sector of the economy from automobiles to insurance.  At GE, the plastic division has reduced delivery from 50 days to 5 while insurance has reduced turnaround from 54 days to 1 (USA Today). What this means for the employee is enhanced skills and competencies to meet the requirements placed on them to produce quickly.  In addition employees must be open to change, pursue innovation, and be able to cope with the blurred boundaries of work and the other aspects of their lives.  With a fast economy comes the responsibility of sustaining one’s own employability and taking control of one’s career.

Opportunities will be spun out of advancements in research and development efforts.  So who is pumping the money into R&D?  From 1950 to early 1990’s military and space research, sponsored by the federal government, generated many leading edge commercial products such as Teflon and Velcro.  Today the largest R&D budgets are found in pharmaceuticals, computer chips, network equipment, and automobiles.  The largest funder of R&D may be the entertainment sector as a whole; they have a product with a short life span with the expectation that the next film will be even more spectacular.  Out of these industries will emerge some of the leading employment opportunities for today’s college and high school students.

With the completion of mapping DNA, the next 30 years will be witness to incredible advancements in understanding diseases, mental development, and aging that affect humans.  In response to this knowledge, genetaceuticals (combining genetics into pharmaceuticals), weight control products, gene therapy, and genetic manipulation will stimulate a wide array of science, medical, and psychological professional positions.

The automobile industry will continue to advance hybrid vehicles as well as smart tracking devises.  Cars will be fitted with ceramic engines that will make them more efficient which will spur material engineers to find new uses for ceramic products. As the space station is manned later this decade, engineers familiar with working in space will be required to maintain these complex platforms.  Some of the more spectacular advancements are expected in the computer industry where computer engineers, programmers, and application developers will introduce optical computers (photon enhancement will allow computers to run faster than anyone has dreamed), improved language capabilities (simultaneous translation into almost any language), artificial intelligence and neural networks.   By 2031, nanotechnologies will have advanced to commercial applications, which will open new frontiers in medicine, manufacturing and every day living.

Boomers will demand many new services, resulting in new occupations or job opportunities.  As they prepare to retire, benefits analysts and retirement counselors will be important to clarify options.  Boomers may seek a specialist in relocation to identify regions of the country to establish a retirement residence – meeting all their lifestyle profiles.  As boomers age, they will not take being old sitting down.  They will remain active well into their 90s.  Leisure and recreation specialists will be required to develop activities and adventures that cater to boomer interests.  While boomers may be one of the healthier generations, they will demand a variety of medical resources.  Gerontology will become a focal point in all areas of allied health. College and high school students bring a strong environmental ethic into their activities.  Rather than spend time debating policy, these students would prefer to do something about hunger, pollution, and population growth.  As natural resources are strained expect advancements in food production, including artificial foods, protection of water, air and land through sustainable practices.

These simple snap shots highlight the wide array of opportunities available to young people.  The global economy will need well-educated engineers and scientists.  Currently the U.S. is not producing enough scientists to meet the potential demand.  While the number of males entering computer science programs continues to grow, the percentage of freshmen women pursuing a computer degree has not changed much over the past decade.  Similar patterns can be found in engineering.  Women, however, have focused on medical careers, surpassing men in attendance in medical schools.  Many companies look abroad to India, Russia, and Israel for engineers and scientists.  A wild card in the future global labor market concerns China.  With its wealth of human resources, China could capture a large share of the manpower needs of global companies if they elect to allow their people greater access to positions.

To obtain a job in the new economy, young people will be required to be well educated.  This will not mean that everyone will have to attend a four-year college.  In fact too many students come to college today believing they have to have a diploma to land the perfect job.  Often these students find they are not ready for college or that they cannot figure out why they are there.  A college degree does not guarantee a job.  What is required is a good education and training.  High school students need to take more time in thinking through exactly what they want to do and identify the appropriate educational paths to achieve their aspirations.  Many of the best paying jobs, technicians, programmers, and allied health specialists, can be obtained through two-year colleges.  The apprenticed trades (electrians, tool and die, finish carpenters for example) can be entered through cooperative education and trade associations.  What is important is finding the best fit for what one really loves to do. What a student must not do is stop learning.  In a fast economy skills obsolesce quickly.  New information and applications change production processes or methods for delivering a service.  A strong commitment to learning is essential because the name of the game is sustaining employability.  Pursuit of new skills and enhancement of old ones is the cornerstone for success in one’s occupation.

The skills and competencies necessary in the new economy involve both technical competencies and people/emotional skills.  In an earlier issue of THE BLACK COLLEGIAN, I referred to the “total package.”  Employers are seeking employees who possess a package of skills which include technical knowledge in chosen field, computer literacy, critical thinking and problem solving, teamwork, leadership, interpersonal communication (being able to build rapport, influencing others, and communicating thoughts), oral presentations, and personal accountability (completing work on time, time management, being dependable).  It may surprise you how many graduates lack some of these critical skills.

Robert Kelly in his study of star performers in the workplace found that academic success does not always translate into work success.  In his studies at Bell Laboratory, he found that the keys to success centered on being able to take the initiative, leadership accompanied by followership (stepping aside to let others lead), teamwork, presentation ability, networking (developing contacts that provide support at critical times), self management (same as accountability) and organizational savvy (knowing the politics of the organization).  This list is very similar to the total package.

To develop the total package, a student needs to be engaged in more than classroom exercises and studying.  Involvement in student organizations, internships, study abroad, and community service are ways to gain valuable experiences that augment skill development. Instead of maintaining a short list of references, students should be encouraged to keep a network file that contains names of people met, such as guest speakers in class or at student functions, acquaintances of parents and relatives in the fields you plan to enter, classmates, and professors.  Social and professional contacts are the eyes and ears to new opportunities.  Remember employers have switched the type of person they are looking for from physical labor to social and intellectual capital.  This means that what one knows, and who one knows, are both equally important.

Opportunities will abound.  In fact, the labor market needs for the next 30 years will only be crushed by a serious, prolonged downturn in the economy.  To be positioned to take advantage of these opportunities does require preparation and planning.   Why?  The new economy is full of risks and uncertainties.  Companies will continually restructure, replacing labor that does not have the required skills or responding to changing product or service demands.  More workers will be hired to contribute to a specific project.  When the project is completed, workers will have to seek a new experience.  Surviving the fast economy requires an understanding that careers are zigzags not straight paths and to be able to zig and zag successfully means being prepared.

In conclusion, I would like to return to demographics for a moment.  Another important change will occur in the labor market over the next 30 years.  Whites who currently comprise over 70% of the workforce will shrink to just over 50%.  African Americans, Asians and Latinos will enter in much larger numbers.  Everyone will be a minority in some respect.  The real dividing line will be socioeconomic – those who can participate in the new economy and those who are stuck in the lower paying jobs of the old.  Access to educational opportunities that prepare all youth for the challenges of the new economy is paramount to sustaining a vibrant economy.  Our society cannot afford poorly prepared youth.  Thus, the challenge is on all our shoulders to promote achievement and to support the aspirations of all our youth.

Dr. Philip D. Gardner is the director of Research for the Collegiate Employment Research Institute at Michigan State University (MSU). He is the author of the annual Recruiting Trends report published by MSU.